Arkansas' shocking loss to Hyphen Speed last week rocked the college football world, but there's a fascinating sidebar to it that hasn't been discussed a whole lot.
Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com explores Louisiana-Monroe's unconventional fourth-down tactics in this article. Apparently coach Todd Berry became intrigued by the outside-the-box thinking when he got to know a high school coach in Little Rock who, get this, is a Razorbacks fan.
Kelley has gained national attention for his unorthodox coaching methods at Pulaski Academy. He has turned the Bruins into a football powerhouse by eschewing punts and going for it on fourth down more than 99 percent of the time. Since the start of the 2008 season, the Bruins have punted only three times, while converting on fourth down more than 50 percent of the time.
Pulaski Academy is 105-20 over the past 10 seasons and has won three state championships, including an undefeated record in 2011 while, of course, punting only once.
"We don't do things like everybody else," Kelley said. "I came across studies and they said people should go for it a lot more than they do -- but maybe not as much as we do."
And this passage tends to stand out:
As difficult as it might be to believe, if a college team faces fourth down at its 5-yard line, according to Kelley's research, there actually isn't much more risk in passing up a punt for another offensive play.
According to Kelley's data, college teams are likely to net 30-35 yards on a punt from the end zone, and teams have a 77 percent chance of scoring a touchdown from inside an opponent's 40-yard line. The odds of giving up a touchdown from the 5-yard line are about 92 percent, so Kelley figures there isn't much more risk in going for a first down.
"Even if there's only a 33 percent chance you'll make it, the numbers still say you should go for it," Kelley said. "If you get to the point where you know you're going to go for it no matter what, you don't even get in that situation because it changes the dynamics of the play-calling. We don't have to throw on third-and-6 because we know we still have fourth down."
Truly fascinating stuff. But I can't imagine a sudden outbreak of teams going for it on fourth down at their 5-yard line. Sure would be entertaining to watch, though.
A few more Wednesday links:
-- Bruce Feldman unearths some surprising stats two weeks in, including:
Arizona (2-0) is No. 9 in the country in passing and scoring? In Rich Rodriguez's first season at Michigan, the Wolverines were 59th in rushing, 108th in passing, 109th in offense and only scored 24 or more three times all year. They've done it twice already in the first two games. QB Matt Scott has been terrific in this scheme, as have the rest of the Cats. "We don't have everything down execution-wise -- we can play a lot better," Rodriguez said. "But our guys have bought into it from Day One from as far as the pace and learning some new techniques. They've been sitting up in their chairs as far as seeing what's next."
-- The guys down at Warchant break down Wake Forest.
-- Braxton Miller is a heck of a running threat, but right now Urban Meyer is worried more about the threat of Miller getting hurt.
It's something you always have to weigh heavily when your quarterback is darting among heat-seeking missiles. Down in Columbia, they're experiencing the drawback to jitterbug Connor Shaw running so often out of the zone-read.
-- Nuk Hopkins didn't make Heather Dinich's preseason list of Top 25 ACC players. Now he's on her Heisman list.
-- Virginia completely gashed Georgia Tech with the running game last year, and I'm guessing the Jackets' front seven is going to be frothing at the mouth for this one.
-- And more on the soap opera in Chapel Hill.
Calgon, take them away.
LW
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