Got a chance to look at this video from last year's Oklahoma-Florida State game, and while it's a collection of Sooners highlights it's still enlightening in showing how Oklahoma was able to win that game by 10.
It's definitely worth the 12 minutes of your time.
A few notable things to me:
* Oklahoma went right down the field on its first possession, moving the ball in a variety of ways but most importantly shoving it down the Seminoles' throats. Huge, huge to be able to go up 7-0 and take the air out of the stadium in a game like that.
* Brent Venables called a great game. For all you Tecmo Bowl fanatics, seemed like he picked almost all of Jimbo Fisher's plays.
* Calling a great game is easier when you have the horses, and in this game the Sooners had the horses where Clemson to date has not: a beast on the defensive line (Ronnell Lewis), and linebackers who were absolutely all over the place. The Seminoles rushed for 26 yards on 27 carries, and at this point there's very little confidence Clemson can be dominant against the run.
* Oklahoma ran for just 111 yards, but they picked up some big yards on the ground when they needed to. Similar to Clemson last year in the Tigers' 35-30 win over the 'Noles.
* Take notice of how well Oklahoma's receivers (particularly Ryan Broyles) were able to successfully find the soft spots in Mark Stoops' zone behind the linebackers and in front of the safeties.
* You hear Florida State fans say the Seminoles didn't have E.J. Manuel for much of that game after he got hurt, but check out the score at the point he went down: 13-3.
* There was also a strong intangible at work in this game between a confident team that was comfortable in the big-game setting (Oklahoma) and a team that wasn't ready for primetime (Florida State).
And that's a nice transition into a necessary explanation for my pick for Saturday's showdown.
First off, I've said before I don't really like picking and it's the truth. It's a crap shoot, it's a little too self-important, and I don't necessarily have any more skill at it than any of you.
But from the moment I walked out of Death Valley last week after the Furman win, a lot of people seemed interested in my feelings on what will happen Saturday. I've gone back and forth all week, leaning mostly toward Florida State because it's hard to stake much confidence at all in Clemson's defense right now.
But these thoughts popped into my head this morning:
* Sometimes the first impression is the best impression. Couple hours after the win over Furman, the take was: "Clemson will spend the week getting its butt chewed, and Florida State will spend the week feeling good about itself. Advantage: Tigers."
* We like to say "show me" when we're evaluating teams with gobs of potential, and which team has shown us more over the last year?
* Florida State could make the so-called experts look smart and win handily. But if you believe this game will be closer than most anticipate (as I do), then shouldn't you side with the quarterback and the offense that has demonstrated the ability to execute in pressure situations?
* Maybe Manuel rushes for 200 yards and doesn't have to throw the ball to beat Clemson (and heck, it's not as though precision passes have been needed to exploit the assortment of busts by the Tigers' secondary in the first three games). But his ability to read a defense and decision-making haven't been all that great, and my hunch is those areas will be tested in this one.
* We still don't know a lot about this Florida State team, regardless of how good they looked against Wake Forest.
* Chad Morris for President.
Clemson 35, Florida State 31
LW
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