Paul Johnson's problem

A few years ago when Paul Johnson was winning far more games than he is now, I didn't hesitate to point out those successes and what made them possible.

At the time, some people were skeptical not of his system, but of his ability to recruit to that system. I wasn't totally dismissive of that particular skepticism, but I didn't exactly endorse it either.

"He doesn't have to get five-star players to succeed," I said then. "He just needs a few good ones."

As it turns out, "a few good ones" might've been too ambitious. Covered this the day after Georgia Tech's overtime loss at Virginia Tech a few weeks ago, but this offense is bereft of playmakers.

Yes, they're going to break some big runs (as they have this year). Yes, they're going to hit on a big pass every now and then because their receivers are singled up almost the entire time.

But Johnson's success in 2008 and 2009 wasn't just built on a system, but on playmakers in that system. Guys like Josh Nesbitt, Jonathan Dwyer, Bey Bey Thomas, and Roddy Jones. Not to mention some really good defensive players. Guys who were recruited by Chan Gailey.

Sometimes a playmaker doesn't define himself by going 70 yards. Sometimes he does whatever it takes to get a first down, as we've seen from Tajh Boyd this season.

Johnson's offense is a big-play offense, and that defies the conventional view of the flexbone as not sufficiently explosive.

But as much as I've pointed that out in defense of Johnson's offense, it's also apparent that another convention has been debunked: that of this offense as one that can plod along on long drives based on the existence of guaranteed conversions on third- and fourth-and-short.

How many times did Tech convert on short yardage against Clemson in its two meetings in 2009? About 243, it seems?

Not so much lately. Big-time short-yardage breakdowns in Saturday's collapse against Miami, and some similar problems in the opener at Virginia Tech.

Not much doubt in my mind that Johnson would win big at a place with abundant resources. But the situation in Atlanta is the perfect storm for lack of talent procurement:

* Hard to recruit to that system, on offense and defense (opposing recruiters hammer them with it, as they should).

* Hard to recruit to Georgia Tech, period (academics, Georgia as the big dog in the state, and others from nearby states regularly mining talent from there).

* Johnson has to be a marginal salesman at best. When you're recruiting pitch is: "Come play for me because I'm a genius, and if you don't want to well you're an idiot" it doesn't really resonate all that well.

Mark Bradley of the AJC has been high on PJ for a while now, but in this column he nails some of the deficiencies:

* Whenever you’d see Johnson’s teams at Georgia Southern or Navy, your first thought was, “What it would look like if you ran that offense with real Division I-A talent?” For two years we saw. We saw Joshua Nesbitt and Jonathan Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas and this offense score 45 points in Athens and 49 in Tallahassee and 39 against Clemson in the ACC championship game, and we hailed Johnson for taking Chan Gailey’s players and winning bigger than Gailey ever had.

Then Gailey’s players began to leave, as college players will. From the 20-7 of those two giddy seasons, Tech has since gone 16-14 overall, 10-9 in ACC play. An even more salient stat: With Nesbitt as starting quarterback, Tech was 23-11; since Nesbitt broke his arm at Virginia Tech in November 2010, Tech is 11-10.

* Oh, the offense still functions. Tech ranks 19th nationally in total yardage, 13th in scoring, third in rushing yards. But the offense couldn’t kill the clock — you’d think a running team would be able to kill the clock — with a 17-point lead against Miami, and by the final frantic minutes the Jackets’ defenders, who aren’t to be confused with Alabama on their best day, were covering nobody and missing every tackle. For the third time in five games, Tech couldn’t hold a late lead and was forced to overtime. For the third time in those three overtimes, the offense couldn’t score a touchdown.

* Johnson might think recruiting rankings don’t matter — he has said as much — but we’re seeing now the limits of a team that has talent closer to Georgia Southern’s than, say, Georgia’s. So long as Johnson can outsmart somebody and his offense can run free, Tech can win. But you can’t outsmart everybody, and the better teams won’t let that offense go unchecked. So then it’s down to execution, and Tech has lost five of its past six games decided by 10 or fewer points. The exception came against Duke.

Johnson might say his team is two plays away from being 4-0 and leading its division, and he’d be correct. But plays must be made by players, and Tech doesn’t have enough of those. What it does have is a stylized offense. And that’s about all.

Ouch.

Don't think for a moment that Tech can't come to Death Valley 11 days from now and win. They can because Clemson's defense is a bit of a mess, and because Johnson's offense is still hard to stop.

But if we're evaluating his program as a whole, the cracks are obvious even to those of us who were singing his praises in his first and second seasons.

LW