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Thursday, December 30, 2010
Full disclosure
If we’re going to scrutinize people for a living, it’s only fair that we allow for some scrutiny of ourselves.
Just about everyone with an Internet connection or a Twitter account is willing to broadcast summer predictions to anyone who will listen, but how often are those predictions presented after the games are played?
So in the interest of full disclosure, here’s the good, the bad and the ugly from my summer forecast of the ACC.
We’ll start with the Atlantic. Stay tuned for the Coastal on Friday.
FLORIDA STATE
Where we picked ‘em: First
What we said then: "Not a lot of separation between the Seminoles and Clemson. But Florida State has a number of things in its favor: The offense could be a juggernaut, with 10 starters returning from the group that put up 421 yards a game last year. The defense should be significantly better with Mark Stoops running a conservative zone scheme that theoretically minimizes the back-breaking plays that hurt the Seminoles so much in recent years under Mickey Andrews. The Seminoles’ toughest ACC games, with the exception of a trip to Miami, are at home. But there’s still some cause for skepticism. Looking back at last year’s 7-6 record, some results are still head-scratchers. Losing at home to Jacksonville State? Or getting dominated at home by South Florida? Or barely beating an awful Maryland team at home? Those examples suggest that Jimbo Fisher might not be able to cure all the problems overnight. But he certainly appears on the right path.”
Predicted record: 8-4, 6-2
Actual record: 9-3, 6-2
Where they finished: First
CLEMSON
Where we picked ‘em: Second
What we said then: “Really tempted to put the Tigers atop the Atlantic, because what’s that old saying about defense and championships? But there are too many question marks to make us comfortable about forecasting a first-place finish. How will the offense compensate for the loss of C.J. Spiller – not just his explosive plays on offense, but also his return exploits that created exquisite starting field position? Will any of the receivers emerge to be playmakers? Will someone be able to make field goals in pressure situations? Will the offensive line avoid injuries?"
Predicted record: 8-4, 5-3
Actual record: 6-6, 4-4
Where they finished: T-4th
BOSTON COLLEGE
Where we picked ‘em: Third
What we said then: “This year, some folks are picking the Eagles to win the division over Florida State and Clemson. We might come to regret this, but sorry: Not buying just yet. Last year’s team did impressive things, but the Eagles looked awful against Clemson, Virginia Tech and North Carolina (lost by an aggregate 104-34). This team has some good parts, most notably a stout offensive line and a dynamic tailback in Montel Harris. Yet there are still questions at quarterback, receiver and defensive line. About that quarterback position: We’re a heck of a lot more sold on Christian Ponder and Kyle Parker than we are Dave Shinskie or whoever the Eagles throw out there. So Florida State and Clemson get the edge based on that alone.”
Predicted record: 8-4, 5-3
Actual record: 7-5, 4-4
Where they finished: T-4th
N.C. STATE
Where we picked ‘em: Fourth
What we said then: “It’s still plenty reasonable to think the Wolfpack can make some noise in the Atlantic Division. Tom O’Brien is still a good coach, and surely this program’s awful run of injuries is over – or at least diminished. But the schedule is going to make it tremendously difficult for this team to have a winning season. … The schedule isn’t the only problem. Big questions at running back, where Toney Baker and Jamelle Eugene left a group of unproven successors. Russell Wilson is spectacular, and he has some nice targets. But if the Wolfpack’s shaky offensive line isn’t able to open holes for the running game, there could be trouble.”
Predicted record: 6-6, 4-4
Actual record: 8-4, 5-3
Where they finished: T-2nd
MARYLAND
Where we picked ‘em: Fifth
What we said then: “Tough call between the Terps and Wake Forest for this spot. Maryland certainly didn’t do much last year to make its case, tumbling to a disastrous 2-10 mark that put some serious heat on 10th-year coach Ralph Friedgen. There are huge question marks, most notably up front on both sides of the ball. But nearly 75 percent of the two-deep is back from a team that probably wasn’t as bad as its record indicated.”
Predicted record: 7-5, 4-4
Actual record: 8-4, 5-3
Where they finished: T-2nd
WAKE FOREST
Where we picked ‘em: Sixth
What we said then: “This is tough, because you underestimate Jim Grobe at your own peril. But Riley Skinner was so important to this program, and now he’s gone. … Is the offensive line good enough after suffering substantial losses from a front that was a major problem area last season? The defense regressed considerably last season, and the holes on the interior defensive line suggest the Deacons will again find it difficult to stop the run.”
Predicted record: 6-6, 3-5
Actual record: 3-9, 1-7
Where they finished: Sixth
LW
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