As you look back over the past five years, it's impossible not to wonder how Clemson football would be different right now had the Tigers had better fortunes against Georgia Tech, Boston College, Maryland and Wake Forest.
By my count, Clemson lost 13 of 21 games against those four teams over that span.
Raise your hand if, when the ACC expanded from nine to 12 teams, you thought those four programs would end up being the major obstacle to the Tigers' hopes of excelling in the new and improved ACC.
Everyone thought Florida State and Miami would be the big dogs, but the Seminoles and Hurricanes have combined for a 41-39 ACC record in five years of the 12-team ACC. Virginia Tech has capitalized and thrived, winning 31 of 40 ACC games while claiming two conference titles (three if you count the one in 2004).
Clemson certainly hasn't been bad; the Tigers have a 24-16 ACC record from 2005-09, ranking fourth. But gosh, hard to ignore the tremendous opportunity lost given the mediocrity of Florida State and Miami.
The frustration becomes even more pronounced when you look at all the close games that didn't go Clemson's way.
Examining the numbers, there's very little mystery as to why the Tigers haven't achieved more.
Over the past five seasons, Clemson has played in 13 games decided by three points or less. The Tigers have won three of them.
Over the same stretch, the Tigers have played in 26 games decided by seven points or less and won nine of them.
Of the aforementioned 13 losses to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Maryland and Wake Forest, a staggering 12 have come by five points or less. The only exception: a 13-3 defeat at Georgia Tech in 2007 (a game that was closer than the score indicates).
What's really crazy is what's happened when Clemson has beaten these four teams.
The 13 losses have come by a combined 46 points. The eight victories have come by a combined 144 points.
That's an average margin of defeat of 3.5 points ... and an average margin of victory of 18 points.
Given these numbers, how can "roller-coaster ride" not be the perfect description for Clemson football over this stretch?
From this point forward, I won't argue with anyone who predicts a Clemson loss this season at Boston College and/or Wake Forest. Yeah, the Tigers curb-stomped both teams last year in Death Valley. But discounting the possibility of a complete reversal of fortunes would be ignoring a load of history.
Here's how the entire ACC has fared in close games over the last five years:
ATLANTIC
Boston College
Three points or less: 8-5
Seven points or less: 19-9
Clemson
Three points or less: 3-10
Seven points or less: 9-17
Florida State
Three points or less: 6-4
Seven points or less: 9-15
Maryland
Three points or less: 10-5
Seven points or less: 17-14
N.C. State
Three points or less: 3-5
Seven points or less: 14-15
Wake Forest
Three points or less: 6-8
Seven points or less: 14-13
COASTAL
Duke
Three points or less: 1-4
Seven points or less: 3-11
Georgia Tech
Three points or less: 9-6
Seven points or less: 18-11
Miami
Three points or less: 6-7
Seven points or less: 12-14
North Carolina
Three points or less: 8-11
Seven points or less: 13-18
Virginia
Three points or less: 9-5
Seven points or less: 13-9
Virginia Tech
Three points or less: 4-3
Seven points or less: 8-9
Initial non-Clemson thoughts:
-- Virginia Tech has been in a mere seven games decided by three points or less, and 17 games decided by a touchdown or less. Both numbers are decided lows if you remove Duke (and we're removing Duke, because the Blue Devils get blown out most of the time). So the Hokies' formula for ACC dominance has not been success in close games, but reduction of close games.
-- Boston College's 19-9 record in games decided by a touchdown or less goes a long way in explaining how the Eagles have surpassed expectations every season in their five-year ACC stay. Their 26-14 ACC record is the best in the Atlantic Division, and they've been to the ACC title game twice.
-- Paul Johnson can take a large share of the credit for Georgia Tech's favorable record in close games. The Yellow Jackets have won 10 of 13 games decided by seven points or less the past two seasons, including a 6-1 record in games decided by three points or less. In the last two seasons under Chan Gailey, the Jackets were 5-6 in games decided by seven points or less and 2-4 in games decided by three points or less.
On to a few Friday links...
Looks like Auburn fans have some new smack-talk fodder:
Alabama somehow can't spell "Mississippi."
Doesn't rank up there with "Punt Bama, Punt," but it's close.
The North Carolina secretary of state has asked sports agents registered in the Tarheel State to preserve all information regarding six UNC football players: Marvin Austin, Greg Little, Deunta Williams, Kendric Burney, Bruce Carter and Quan Sturdivant.
David Glenn of The ACC Sports Journal interviews Dabo Swinney.
Also in Glenn's Sports Journal, some hack presents four questions facing Clemson.
Here's a piece looking back at David Cutcliffe's decision to turn down Tennessee.
And we'll close on a rather large note: A look at a Mississippi offensive lineman who's 6-foot-11 and 390 pounds.
Makes Kalon Davis look like a pipsqueak.
LW
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