More on turnover margin

The one thing that sticks out in researching the ACC's turnover-margin stats from the last five years is the remarkably wild swings in the statistic from year to year.

Let's take N.C. State, for example.

In 2005, their margin was even.

In 2006, it was minus-11.

In 2007, minus-16.

In 2008, plus-8.

And in 2009, minus-11.

What a roller coaster.

Here's the Wolfies' records in those years:

2005: 7-5
2006: 3-9
2007: 5-7
2008: 6-7
2009: 5-7

Here's a look at the ACC's five-year rankings in turnover margin, in overall games (rank in overall win total in parentheses):

1. Virginia Tech 9.4 (1)
2. Wake Forest 6.6 (7)
3. Clemson 5.8 (4)
4. Georgia Tech 3.6 (3)
5. B.C. 3.4 (2)
6. Virginia 0 (9)
7. Florida State -1 (5)
8. North Carolina -2 (10)
9. Duke -2.4 (12)
10. Miami -2.8 (6)
11. Maryland -3.4 (8)
12. N.C. State -6 (11)

And rank in ACC-only turnover margin (rank in ACC win total in parentheses):

1. Virginia Tech 5.8 (1)
2. Wake Forest 5.6 (5)
3. Virginia 2.8 (8)
4. Clemson 2.6 (4)
5. Georgia Tech 1 (2)
6. Maryland -1.2 (10)
6. Boston College -1.2 (3)
8. Duke -2 (12)
9. FSU -2.8 (5)
10. N.C. State -3 (11)
11. UNC -3.6 (9)
12. Miami -4 (7)

No surprise that Virginia Tech ranks atop the list in both categories. The Hokies are mostly identified with great special-teams play, but their ability to protect the ball while forcing takeaways might be just as important.

Consider this: Virginia Tech is the only ACC team that posted a positive turnover margin in all five seasons.

Also, the Hokies' numbers are pretty consistent for this statistic:

2009: plus-9
2008: plus-14
2007: plus-11
2006: plus-4
2005: plus-9

The biggest reasons for Virginia Tech's sterling turnover margin: The Hokies intercept a lot of passes (17.8 per season, ranking second in the ACC), and they don't throw a lot of picks (9.8 per season, first in the ACC).

I was surprised to see that Boston College leads the interceptions-gained stat with 19.6 per season. But the Eagles diminished those gains by throwing 15.4 interceptions per season, ranking ninth in the ACC.

Here's a look at how things stack up with interceptions gained:

1. Boston College 19.6
2. Virginia Tech 17.8
3. Clemson 16.8
4. Wake Forest 16.4
5. Georgia Tech 13.8
6. UNC 13.6
7. FSU 12.8
8. UVA 11.8
9. N.C. State 11.2
10. Duke 10.6
11. Miami 10.4
12. Maryland 10

And interceptions lost:

1. VT 9.8
2. WF 10.2
3. GT 10.6
4. Clemson 11.2
5. UVA 12.4
6. Maryland 12.6
7. Duke 13.2
8. FSU 14.8
9. Boston College 15.4
10. UNC 15.6
11. NC State 16
12. Miami 16.8

And fumbles gained:

1. Florida State 11.8
1. Georgia Tech 11.8
3. Miami 11.6
4. Virginia Tech 11
5. Wake Forest 10.8
6. Clemson 10.6
7. Duke 10
8. Boston College 9.8
8. North Carolina 9.8
10. Maryland 9.4
11. Virginia 8.8
12. N.C. State 7.6

And fumbles lost:

1. Miami 8
2. Virginia 8.2
3. N.C. State 8.8
4. Virginia Tech 9.2
5. Duke 9.8
5. North Carolina 9.8
7. Maryland 10.2
8. Clemson 10.4
8. Wake Forest 10.4
10. Boston College 10.6
11. Florida State 10.8
12. Georgia Tech 11.4

Miami fans can get a pretty solid explanation as to why their team has been so mediocre since joining the ACC. Their quarterbacks are throwing too many picks, and their secondary isn't getting enough of them.

As we told you in this "TI Trends" story on turnover margin, here's what Clemson's numbers look like:

2009: plus-6
2008: minus-1
2007: plus-13
2006: plus-2
2005: plus-9

And here's a look at points off turnovers in those years:

2009: 88-55
2008: 121-62
2007: 78-27
2006: 113-51
2005: 13-55

The 2005 stat just jumps off the page, er, screen. The Tigers get 24 turnovers but score just 13 points off those turnovers. Amazing.

Here's a look at Clemson's points per turnover gained in those years:

2009: 2.9
2008: 4.3
2007: 3.1
2006: 3.7
2005: .54

In Clemson's four losses in 2005, the Tigers scored a total of 10 points off seven turnovers. Included was zero points off two Boston College turnovers in a 16-13 home overtime loss to the Eagles.

Another remarkable stat from Clemson last season: Opponents fumbled 35 times, but the Tigers recovered just nine of those fumbles.

On to some links...

Bart Wright writes that it's been a bumpy road for Brad Brownell so far.

I am surprised to see that two high-profile recruits -- Marcus Thornton and Damien Leonard -- were apparently so sold on Ron Bradley.

But is Bart seriously suggesting Bradley should be the Tigers' coach right now? Ron is a nice guy and all, but I'm sorry.

Good story here by Greg Wallace, who features Etta Etta-Tawo reflecting on Gaines Adams' death. Etta-Tawo's football career was cut short by the discovery of the same condition that killed Adams.

“I shed some tears,” he said. “When I found out the cause (of death) was an enlarged heart, everyone kept calling me and saying, ‘That’s the same thing you had.’ I said, ‘I know, I can’t believe it.’ I’m just so thankful (doctors) actually found it before it got too bad.”

The Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News & Observer follow up on the ACC's TV deal and confirm what was already reported. The numbers presented in this story are slightly different, though.

On condition of anonymity, one source with knowledge of the deal confirmed those figures for The Charlotte Observer and The (Raleigh) News & Observer. Another source said the $155 million cited is "in the ballpark," albeit on the high end of a deal the source estimated at $150 million a year or slightly lower.

Despite the reports, the ACC and ESPN said Monday that no deal has been reached. ESPN spokesman Mike Humes said the discussions are ongoing.

Tom Sorensen of The Charlotte Observer says the ACC should expand, but get it right this time.

Lots of zingers in this one.

But Boston College has been an utter waste. The school failed to deliver the Boston market, which was predictable. It also failed to deliver a team that fans who aren't alumni care about. Throw out the record books when Boston College and Wake Forest get together. Or don't.

Miami was once the premier program in college football. The Hurricanes are now the overweight bald guy who sits on a bar stool and tells you what a stud he used to be.

Virginia Tech, however, has been invaluable. One of my favorite annual ACC moments is when basketball coach Seth Greenberg flips out when the NCAA tournament rejects his team.

I think he was reaching a bit on the Boston College thing. Sure, the whole "Boston market" criticism is legit. But the Eagles have no doubt been successful in football and basketball; they have advanced to the ACC title game twice in the former sport, and they are a threat to do it again in 2010.

More from Sorensen:

ACC football is overrated, overblown and overshadowed by the SEC. It's where Among Other Teams Receiving Votes gather. It's where good things don't happen, but will.

A friend says, "Butch Davis will get it done at North Carolina."

This is the motto of ACC football: "We'll get it done - eventually."

Elite conferences get it done now.

Caulton Tudor also weighs in by saying the Big Ten should heed the ACC's expansion lesson.

At the end of the turmoil, the ACC wound up a weaker basketball conference, roughly the same in football and with a baseball "championship" tournament that prohibits four teams every year from even competing.

The per-team television income remained about the same as when the ACC had nine members, and those all-important football championship games have done nothing to create any sort of national interest or prestige.

In baseball news, Clemson bounces back against the Blue Hose.

“This was big, huge,” Clemson coach Jack Leggett said. “We couldn’t afford to lose this game going into the weekend. Coming off last weekend we needed something positive to happen to try and get ourselves in the right frame of mind.”

Travis Haney of The Post and Courier says Murphy Holloway is headed for South Carolina.

Not going to say I told you so, but -- well, I guess I am going to say I told you so -- way back on May 8, I wondered in a message-board post exactly whether Ole Miss was bright enough to envision the possibility of Holloway ending up at South Carolina and whipping their tails over his final two years of eligibility.

You'd like assume Ole Miss was intelligent enough to think this thing through throughly. Then again, the Rebels are coached by a man whose cab-ride craziness ended up earning him one of these:


LW