Is carryover overrated?

Question of the day: Do we place too much importance on transitive properties from season to season?

As in:

"Well, we beat the crap out of that team last year. So we should have no problem with them this year."

I tend to think we make too much of that. College football is so fluid with players leaving, players coming in. And then you have the roller-coaster of team emotions that are completely unpredictable when you're dealing with teenagers.

Here are two popular Clemson-related statements that are rooted in carryover:

1. "We dominated Florida State for most of last year's game and lost on a 55-yard field goal in Tallahassee. So we should beat them this year in Clemson."

Should Clemson have a reasonable opportunity to beat the Seminoles? Absolutely. But I'm just not sure it relates much at all to 2010. Clemson's defensive line dominated in last year's game, but will it be able to do so this year without Da'Quan Bowers and Jarvis Jenkins? I dunno.

Just so many different circumstances. Clemson has a new offensive coordinator, and you'd think Chad Morris' style would be productive against some of FSU's tactics. But again, you never really know.

2. "South Carolina has owned us the past two years. So no way we win in Columbia this year."

Eh ... I know the Gamecocks are talented, maybe more talented than they've ever been. But rewind two years to what we were saying about this game in the wake of Clemson's utter pummeling of the Gamecocks in 2008.

Clemson's biggest problem the past two years in this game has been nonexistent offense. Ellis Johnson has had some trouble with the Hurry-Up, No-Huddle stuff and has gone on record as saying he can't stand it.

Not saying Morris is going to roll up 600 yards this November in Columbia. Not saying beating the Gamecocks won't be tremendously difficult.

Just saying that the introduction of different elements means we shouldn't excessively rely on what happened last year in our assessments of this year.

A few links:

-- Dan Wetzel of Yahoo has a really good piece on the Miami fiasco.

Speaking of Yahoo, talk about doing more than less. They are beating the pants off ESPN when it comes to breaking major stories. Sorta similar to Boise State going to Georgia and winning 55-3.

-- In Atlanta, The Chessmaster thinks Georgia Tech's D will be better in Year 2 of his majestic presence.

-- In Virginia, my buddy David Teel analyzes how the Miami mess could affect the Hokies and Hoos.

-- And at the Miami Herald, looks like the paper had a one-year head start on the Shapiro allegations.

Ouch.



LW