Posted this column by Dan Wetzel earlier this week and gave it passing mention.
On second thought, I think it might be one of the most important pieces that's been written as we brace ourselves for expansion armageddon.
Wetzel, who has built a reputation as an excellent reporter and columnist for Yahoo/Rivals, has written a book entitled "Death to the BCS."
So while he's probably biased against the BCS, he's also probably pretty darned informed about stuff associated with the BCS.
Wetzel's premise in this column is that Jim Delany, commissioner of the Big Ten, envisioned and even calculated the current expansion madness when he helped block the push for a plus-one system two years ago.
Two key players in the blocking of the plus-one were the Big 12 and the Big East, which apparently joined forces with Delany against the two supporters of the plus-one (the SEC and ACC).
Now the Big 12 is on the verge of destruction, and the Big East could be next. Wetzel theorizes that it was all part of Delany's design as he was getting his fledgling Big Ten Network off the ground.
Now, of course, the network's amazing success -- and the undoubtedly brilliant structure that created it -- has schools and conferences elsewhere trying to put themselves in position to compete with the Big 10 financially.
It’s clear now that Delany used opposition to a football playoff not to preserve some bit of “tradition.” His expansion plans clearly indicate he cares nothing about that. It certainly wasn’t done for the sake of aiding Big Ten football, since a playoff with on-campus home games likely would’ve helped his teams.
The goal was to starve out the Big 12, Big East and even the ACC of the hundreds of millions a playoff would’ve given them and thus turn the future of college sports into a battle of television sets.
Delany couldn’t assure that the Big Ten would’ve done well in a football playoff. Maybe the league would’ve succeeded, maybe not. With 26 percent of the nation’s population, tradition rich clubs and its own cable network though, the Big Ten will always dominate if everything boils down to TV revenue.
Wetzel also blows up the notion that college presidents put academics above all else in their decision-making regarding athletics.
The notion was already rendered a total farce with the presidents' support of a 12th regular-season game in college football, but Wetzel takes it a step further.
And let’s forget the ridiculous notion that the presidents are vehemently opposed to a playoff. The presidents will do whatever their commissioner says. It’s always been that case and the expansion chaos proves it. Ohio State’s Gee has been an anti-playoff guy in part because of “missed class time,” even if none would be missed under a playoff that takes place during semester break.
Yet now he’s in favor of adding Texas to the Big Ten, meaning he’ll ship all of his athletes all the way to Austin which would cause … missed class time for hundreds of students.
It’s all a pile of garbage.
Wetzel also presents numbers that indicate the BCS isn't all that profitable at all.
The current bowl system/BCS generated $220 million in gross revenue in 2008-09 and just $140 million in profit due to the high cost of keeping most bowl games afloat. If this sounds good, it isn’t.
Delany estimates a playoff could gross $880 million. The more conservative, yet exhaustively researched estimate we used in the book comes in at around $780 million. In each case profits would exceed $700 million, meaning the BCS is costing college athletics over half a billion in annual profit.
Strong stuff here. I'm not sure I'm totally on board with everything Wetzel says, but at the very least it's a compelling theory.
So now the biggest question is: What does the SEC do?
Andy Staples of SI.com says the SEC has already had discussions with Texas A&M.
I have no insight or connections with the SEC, but I'm not convinced that the SEC makes a move if it can't get Texas.
Two of the best college football reporters in the business, Chris Low and Mark Schlabach, seem to have the same doubts.
Here's a piece from Low.
And from Schlabach.
Unless Texas is on the market, it seems unlikely the SEC will react. Adding the Longhorns and other Big 12 schools would expand the SEC's footprint west, but the Longhorns don't seem interested in joining the SEC at this point.
It is believed that SEC commissioner Michael Slive's top targets for potential expansion would be Texas and possibly Virginia Tech. Adding schools such as Clemson, Florida State and Miami would improve the SEC's on-field product in football, but it would do little to strengthen its brand name in outside markets.
One SEC official told ESPN.com this week that adding teams like the Seminoles and Hurricanes would only be adding schools "that would divide the pie even more."
Also, Florida athletics director Jeremy Foley might be reluctant to add FSU and Miami because the Gators have tried to use their SEC membership as a recruiting advantage in their home state. Unless the Big East dissolves, it seems unlikely the ACC would do much in reaction, either.
The bit about Florida and Foley produces an interesting question: Could certain SEC schools who have in-state rivals who are outside the SEC band together to block entry of those rivals into the SEC?
Reportedly, prospective SEC members must get the thumbs-up from nine of the SEC's current 12 schools.
The states I'm thinking of are Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and ... our lovely Palmetto State.
Not saying it will happen or could happen. But it certainly wouldn't be inconceivable, would it?
Another reporter who's pretty plugged in, Mistuh College Football, isn't as convinced the SEC stands pat. He says the conference is being extraordinarily quiet.
People keep telling me that the SEC should do nothing. But if the Pac-10 and the Big Ten both go to 16 teams, can the SEC stay with a pat hand?
There is absolutely nothing coming out of the SEC on this. This is as locked down as I’ve ever seen them. That should make some people nervous because Slive is one of those “speak softly and carry a big stick” kind of guys.
I'm trying to remember which national columnist, a few weeks ago, suggested that Southern Cal wouldn't face heavy sanctions because there's no way Lane Kiffin would've taken that job had he known big trouble was on the way (pretty sure it was Dennis Dodd).
Well there goes another strike against Kiffin's intelligence and common sense.
According to published reports, USC is expected to face a postseason ban and the loss of scholarships. Both ESPN and the Los Angeles Times reported late Wednesday that the Trojans will face a two-year ban on postseason play and the loss of scholarships. The Times reported that the school will lose a total of 20 scholarships.
Good stuff here from Pat Forde, who had lunch with Notre Dame's president.
On the passenger seat of Jack Swarbrick's SUV sits New York Times best-seller "Sway." The book is, according to its own subtitle, about "the irresistible pull of irrational behavior."
Swarbrick read it recently. Loved it. When asked whether a book about otherwise smart people making flawed decisions might be applicable to the current college conference tempest, the Notre Dame athletic director sighed.
"Yeah," he said, with a slight smile.
According to this report, Texas A&M won't be available to the SEC.
Interesting story in the Independent-Mail on Kyle Bunn and his return to Clemson.
It was 85 degrees here Wednesday morning, probably hotter in Doug Kingsmore Stadium’s third-base dugout.
But the atmosphere turned positively frosty when one name came up: Kyle Bunn.
By the way: Before he left Clemson, Bunn thought this year's Tigers would be Omaha-bound.
In the Greenville News, a piece on hard-throwing reliever Kevin Brady.
What, did you think you'd get through an entire blog without a Kyle Parker mention?
Hard to think he's not gone, baby gone after reading this piece.
Parker, 20, also was the freshman All-ACC quarterback, having passed for 2,526 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2009, and has been projected as a high choice in the NFL draft down the line. But Rockies vice president of scouting Bill Schmidt said the team has received indication that Parker is willing to sign.
"We thought he was our best guy, no doubt, and we believe as a group he wants to start is professional career," Schmidt said. "He has a little leverage. He has three years more of football, but we believe that he'd like to get out and play."
Speaking of gone, congrats to former Clemson women's basketball assistant Todd Steelman. Landed at Ball State, where he'll be associate head coach.
LW
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